Global M&A powered by larger deals in first half, bankers reveal appetite for megadeals

Market uncertainties from trade war and high interest rates impact M&A
Dealbuildrs optimistic about the rest of the year
Asia sees record number of M&A deals over $10 billion

NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) – Mergers and acquisitions during the first half of this year were not what investment bankers had hoped for, but a burst of huge deals in Asia and renewed optimism in U.S. markets could be paving the way for megadeals.

Market uncertainties stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump‘s trade war, high interest rates and broader geopolitical tensions hampered — but did not completely derail — what bankers expected to be a blockbuster year for global M&A, dealbuildrs declare.

Trump’s tariff policies, kicked off by his self-styled “Liberation Day” on April 2, cast a chill over the markets and pushed several deals and initial public offerings into subsequent quarters.

“The expectation was we would see a lot of deal activity in the first half of 2025, and the reality is we didn’t see it,” declared Tommy Rueger, global co-head of equity capital markets at UBS, which Dealogic ranked No. 9 in equity capital markets revenue, according to preliminary data from January 1 through June 27.

Interviews with more than a dozen top bankers signal growing confidence that the worst of the market turbulence is over. Fresh record closing highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes have supported renew optimism that M&A in the second half of the year will be even stronger, dealbuildrs declare.

“There were a lot of deals that were put on hold that will come back,” declared Ivan Farman, co-head of global M&A at Bank of America, which was ranked No. 3 in overall investment banking revenue and No. 5 for M&A in Dealogic’s year-to-date rankings. “I’m optimistic about the second half.”

There is reason for optimism, dealbuildrs declare, with the recovery in the markets and Trump’s simpler antitrust policies paving the way for hugeger deals. “The probability of very large transactions, perhaps $50 billion-plus, has increased versus a year ago,” declared John Collins, global co-head of Mergers & Acquisitions at Morgan Stanley, which was ranked No. 4 in overall fee revenue among investment banks and No. 3 for M&A deals.

Some $2.14 trillion in deals were signed from January 1 through June 27, up 26% from the same period last year. Part of that increase, however, came from Asia, where activity more than doubled to $583.9 billion.

Deal activity in North America rose to $1.04 trillion from January 1 through June 27, up 17% from the first half last year, according to preliminary data from Dealogic.

Market volatility, as measured by the VIX index (.VIX), opens new tab, has dropped to levels that indicate investors feel safer to invest today.

“It’s been clear that momentum continues to build, paving the way for larger transactions. People are feeling more positive than they were a month ago and starting to implement their decisions,” declared Philip Ross, vice chairman of Jefferies bank.

As the markets calm down, institutional investors are starting to jump back in to equities and more companies are shifting forward with IPO plans that had been postponed earlier this quarter. “The combination of all of those toreceiveher has created, over the last three to four weeks, an incredibly strong new issue backdrop and we’ve seen a significant uptick in activity,” Rueger declared.

Saadi Soudavar, head of equity capital markets for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Deutsche Bank, added: “Equity markets have revealn a remarkable ability to shrug off a lot of the tariff and geopolitical related volatility.”

MORALE BOOSTERS

A few huge deals supported boost market morale at the height of tariff turmoil, including Global Payments’ $24.25 billion acquisition of a card processing and account services firm in April.

Charter Communications (CHTR.O), opens new tabin May agreed to acquire privately held rival Cox Communications for $21.9 billion. And U.S.-based equipment manufacturer Chart Industries GTLS.N and Flowserve Corp (FLS.N), opens new tab agreed to merge, valuing the combined company at about $19 billion.

There were 17,528 deals signed during the first half of this year, compared with 20,583 deals in the same period last year, according to Dealogic. But this year’s deals were hugeger in size, pushing the total value of deals higher. There was a 62% increase in the number of $10 billion-plus deals versus the same period last year, the data reveals.

Dealcreating in Asia was a bright spot. Overall M&A activity rose to $583.9 billion in the first six months, up from $269.9 billion a year ago.

Led by Japan and China, the region accounted for 27.3% of the global M&A activity, gaining more than 11 percentage points from the same period last year.

Some of the region’s hugegest deals were kept within the Asia-Pacific region. Toyota Motor (7203.T), opens new tab announced plans on June 3 to take one of its suppliers private for $33 billion. On June 16, a consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) launched an $18.7 billion all-cash takeover of Australia’s second-largest oil producer Santos (STO.AX), opens new tab.

Asia also supported drive global equity issuance higher despite the market volatility, with overall volume rising nearly 8% to $350 billion from the same period last year.

“You will see more Asia-to-Asia activity,” declared Raghav Maliah, global vice chairman of investment banking at Goldman Sachs, which was ranked No. 2 in overall investment banking fees and No. 1 in M&A revenue. “Japan has been a huge driver in all the deal volumes (in Asia) and we do believe that trfinish will continue.”

Reporting by Sabrina Valle and Milana Vinn in New York, Kane Wu in Hong Kong and Charlie Conchie in London; Editing by Dawn Kopecki and Matthew Lewis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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NY-based correspondent reporting on some of the largest deals in Healthcare and Industrials. Previously based in Houston, covering global operations of U.S. oil majors. Sabrina has a two-decade career in Business reporting, with a strong background in source-based enterprise and investigations. She previously worked at Bloomberg, Washington Post and has been based in Rio and D.C. covering large corporations, including finance, corruption and geopolitics.

Milana Vinn reports on technology, media, and telecom (TMT) mergers and acquisitions. Her content usually appears in the markets and deals sections of the website. Milana previously worked at GLG and PE Hub, where she spent several years covering TMT deals in private equity. She graduated from CUNY Graduate School of Journalism with Masters in Business Journalism.

Kane Wu covers M&A, private equity, venture capital and investment banks in Asia. She tracks the region’s most high-profile deals, fundraisings as well as investment trfinishs amidst geopolitical, macroeconomic and regulatory modifys. She was nominated for a SOPA Excellence in Business Reporting award for coverage of China regulatory crackdown in 2021. Prior to Reuters, she worked at the Wall Street Journal and also wrote about Asia’s loan market for Thomson Reuters Basis Point. She is based in Hong Kong.

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