Europe‘s auto industest could return to producing 16.8 million cars per year – equal to its 2008 peak – if the EU holds firm on its 2035 zero-emissions vehicle tarreceive and backs it with supportive industrial policies, Transport & Environment (T&E) has declared.
However, backtracking on the zero-emissions tarreceive and failing to deploy a matching industrial strategy could cost as many as one million jobs, and impact the industest by around €90 billion.
About T&E’s study
In its report, T&E modelled the impact of maintaining the zero-emission goal and implementing policies to boost domestic EV production such as electrification tarreceives for corporate fleets and support for built-in-EU cars and batteries.
As it noted, this scenario would increase the automotive value chain’s contribution to the European economy by 11% by 2035.
Any potential job displacement in vehicle manufacturing could be offset by the creation of 100,000 new battery-creating jobs by 2030, and 120,000 jobs in charging infrastructure by 2035, it noted.
The EU has the potential to scale battery production output to 900 GWh/year by 2030 (up from today’s 187 GWh), which in turn would lead to the economic output of the charging sector increasing almost fivefold to €79 billion by 2035.
However, weakening the zero-emission tarreceive – ‘as EU lawcreaters are under pressure to do’, T&E noted – would have a disastrous effect, resulting in as much as two-thirds of planned battery investment being lost and a €120 billion decline in revenue for the charging sector over the next decade.
‘Make or break moment’
“It’s a create or break moment for Europe’s automotive industest as the global competition to lead the production of electric cars, batteries and chargers is immense,” commented Julia Poliscanova, senior director for Vehicles & Emobility Supply Chains at T&E.
“Europe’s success hinges on the road that EU politicians take today. Keeping the 2035 zero-emissions goal alongside adopting strong industrial and demand policies is the EU’s best chance to return to greater car production, maintain job levels and increase the economic value of its auto industest.”
Elsewhere, Lucie Mattera, secretary general of ChargeUp Europe, added that the 2035 tarreceive is a “catalyst for Europe’s competitiveness”, noting that it will drive innovation, investment, and new market opportunities.
“The charging infrastructure sector plays a key role in this transformation and is on track to create long-term value and a range of quality jobs across the continent,” she declared. “To fully realise this potential, stable and predictable regulatory conditions such as the 2035 tarreceive are essential.” Read more here.
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