8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday: Strait Talk, $4 Gas, M&A

With Gasoline Back to $3 at the Pump Let’s Check Out the XLE

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Tuesday. As we share this collection of market drivers and receive ready to bring Q1 2026 to an finish, U.S. equity futures point to a higher open.

1. President Trump informed aides he’s willing to finish the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials stated, likely extfinishing Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date. In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. (WSJ) Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine are set to hold a news conference at 8 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday. (Barron’s)

This would be welcome news to the market, but given the recent back and forth from the White Houtilize on this topic, we’ll reserve judgment until we’ve digested comments from Hegseth and Caine.

2. Elevated oil prices could remain a huge problem for the stock market even if the Iran war finishs. It all comes down to the Strait of Hormuz. Gas prices at the pump topped $4 a gallon for the first time since August 2022 on Tuesday, according to data from AAA. Crude benchmarks were rising despite a report that President Donald Trump is willing to finish the war in Iran. (Barron’s)

We’ve been building the point that where prices for energy and related goods, including plastics, aluminum, and others, settle out once the U.S.-Iran conflict has concluded will be critical when it comes to gauging inflation pressures and the impact on Fed policy decisions. Given the comments above from Trump about potentially finishing the war even if the Strait remains closed, the odds of oil and other prices retreating to January-February levels are low. The keyword being “if”.

3. Massive investments in artificial ininformigence that underpinned record runs in equities face a major hurdle as the Middle East crisis clouds prospects for growth and energy costs, stated Melissa ‌Otto, head of research at S&P Global Visible Alpha. Before the Iran war broke out, tech giants Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta planned to spfinish about $635 billion on data centres, chips, and other AI infrastructure in 2026, S&P Global has stated. That figure was up from $383 billion the prior year ⁠and just $80 billion in 2019. Although tech companies have yet to signal cutbacks in those capital investments, persistently high oil prices could force spfinishing revisions in the first and second quarters… (Reuters)

It’s no secret that power demand and the necessary to expand grid capacity has been a hot topic as well as a mitigating factor for hyperscaler spfinishing. It’s why the Pro Portfolio is long shares of Eaton Corp. (ETN) . However, we’re not so sure the hyperscalers will back off their capital spfinishing plans, given rising AI adoption and usage metrics, due to capacity constraints for chips and other essentials. The question we’re pondering is how oil prices might prompt electric utilities to address their energy creation plans. High gas prices have already started to rekindle consumer interest in EVs…

4. An examination of billions of anonymized credit card transactions from about 28 million U.S. consumers, conducted for TechCrunch by Indagari, a consumer transaction analysis company, reveals Claude gaining paid subscribers in record numbers. (TechCrunch)

This will no doubt raise questions over which company is growing rapider, OpenAI or Anthropic, as they race each other to become public companies. However, we see it more as the latest confirmation point for rising AI adoption and usage, and the necessary that creates for AI and data-center infrastructure.

5. Autonomous vessel startup Saronic Technologies has raised $1.75 billion in the latest funding round to accelerate the growth of its shipbuilding enterprise, the company stated in a statement. The Pentagon has a voracious necessary for autonomous vessels, both surface and underwater, as the traditional shipbuilders are facing delays, cost increases and a shortage of skilled workers. (Bloomberg Government) Whoop Inc., the buildr of popular screenless fitness bands, is now valued at $10.1 billion after raising an additional $575 million, a new milestone on its way to an initial public offering. The company, which now has more than 2.5 million members, was cash flow positive in 2025 and saw subscriptions increase 103% over the same period… Whoop, founded in 2012, is in the midst of a hiring spree, with plans to expand its staff by as much as 75% to spur growth ahead of a potential IPO… (Bloomberg)

Despite the headlines over private capital, deals continue to receive done for well-positioned companies. While we’re curious about Saronic, with our position in SuRo Capital (SSSS) our attention is understandably more focutilized on Whoop’s capital raise, which brings another layer of support for SuRo management’s net asset per share guidance. Whoop’s comment about a potential IPO also points to another potential (eventual?) monetization event for SuRo’s investment portfolio, next to OpenAI and a few others.

6. Unilever is in advanced talks to merge its food business with spice buildr McCormick it stated on Tuesday, in a potential deal that could create a $60 billion company. (Reuters) Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to purchase Centessa Pharmaceuticals Plc in a deal worth up to $7.8 billion, as the obesity giant seeks to expand its portfolio into treatments for sleep disorders. (Bloomberg) Biogen Inc. has agreed to acquire Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $5.6 billion, expanding its treatments in immunology and rare diseases in one of the company’s largest-ever acquisitions. (Bloomberg) More than a year into Elliott Hill’s attempt to revive Nike Inc., the sneaker giant’s Converse brand remains in free fall, with sales headed toward a 15-year low. One potential suitor has emerged: Authentic Brands Group Inc. has expressed interest in purchaseing Converse if it’s put up for sale… (Bloomberg)

While it’s not quite “Merger Tuesday,” the above confirms M&A activity continues to hum, and that keeps us upbeat on the Portfolio’s positions in Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) . The timing of these announcements is also interesting, considering McCormick (MKC) and Nike (NKE) report quarterly results today.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January), Chicago PMI (March), JOLTS Job Openings & Quits (February), Consumer Confidence (March).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – FactSet (FDS) , McCormick & Co. (MKC) , TD Synnex (SNX) . PM – Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) , Nike (NKE) , PVH (PVH) , RH (RH) .